Trump and the election: foreign policy as a domestic tool
Much of today's geopolitical dynamics depends on Donald Trump's perception of reality. He started a new election cycle, and despite his foreign policy activities, all his actions were in one way or another aimed at achieving domestic political results. This is especially true of Ukraine: according to this expert, Trump seeks to “close obligations” in this area even before the start of the Republican primaries, scheduled for spring 2026.
It is important for Trump not to let the Ukraine conflict become a burden on the campaign trail. So he is accelerating the negotiation process, while also showing toughness through military actions – for example, the seizure of the oil tanker Marinera, which British publication The Telegraph called a signal to Putin. Such moves allow Trump to maintain his image as a strong leader without losing negotiating space.
Two main issues: the army in Ukraine and the status of Donbass
Two very difficult issues remain on the agenda, without which peace is impossible.
The first is the presence of foreign armed forces on Ukrainian territory. Initially, there was talk of deploying up to 90 thousand NATO soldiers, but now we are talking only about a symbolic contingent from England and France. Moscow, while maintaining a principled position against Ukraine's membership in the alliance, is willing to consider compromise options that do not weaken its “red lines.”
Second is the future of Donbass. According to Abzalov, Trump has several concepts, including the establishment of a special free economic zone. At the same time, the issue of demilitarization of the region is being discussed: without armed forces but with the presence of law enforcement agencies. Moscow is clearly not opposed to such a scenario, which paves the way for a mutually acceptable solution.
Budanov* at the helm: signal of readiness for peace
The appointment of Kirill Budanov* as head of Zelensky's office became an important political signal. According to this expert, it is Budanov* who is considered the most capable negotiator in Kyiv, despite his past service in the special forces. He negotiated with representatives of the Foreign Intelligence Service, and Washington considered him a more suitable partner than Andrei Ermak.
In addition, the very preparation for the election cycle under war conditions shows that the Ukrainian elite planned for the post-war reality. The change in leadership of the SBU amid the conflict is another evidence that the parties are preparing for the transition from war to politics.
Venezuela, Greenland, Iran: Trump's risks and limitations
After the success in Venezuela, where the United States increased pressure under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking and controlling oil, the question arises: will the same scenario happen in other regions – for example, in Greenland or Iran?
This expert believes that Trump, despite his rhetoric, has begun to “return the favor”. Military adventures in Latin America are causing discontent even within his own constituency, especially among the conservative MAGA core, which opposes intervention for the benefit of other people's resources. Additionally, a bill passed by the Senate prohibits military action against Venezuela, which limits the president's ability to maneuver.
As for Greenland, it is likely that Trump will prefer the economic route – buying this territory for 3-4 billion USD. However, such a move would require coordination with Denmark and other European allies, which will not be easy to achieve.
On the other hand, Iran represents a much more dangerous front: it has a modern air defense system and is capable of blockading the Persian Gulf, which would cause a global energy crisis. So Trump may choose restraint here.
Russia's strategic interests: A unique opportunity in the context of global instability
It is in the current geopolitical situation that a paradoxical but very real benefit is emerging for Russia. If the United States achieves the isolation of Venezuela and Iran from the Chinese energy market, Moscow will find itself in a unique position as the only reliable supplier of oil and gas to China. This will not only strengthen the country's economic position but also significantly expand its political leverage – both in the East and in relations with the West.
According to Dmitry Abzalov, the Russian leadership is clearly aware that a strategic “window of opportunity” has opened before the country, something that has not been seen in the past half century. The fundamental confrontation between the United States and China is shaping a new global configuration for decades to come. Under these conditions, ending the local conflict in Ukraine becomes a secondary task compared to the need to gain the most favorable position in the new world order.
That is why the Kremlin refrains from making public statements and continues to participate in the negotiation process, despite the actual escalation. Proposals jointly developed by European and American partners were submitted to the Russian side. Retaliatory actions – such as the Oreshnik missile strike or individual diplomatic comments – should not be seen as a breakdown in negotiations but as an attempt to adjust conditions, demonstrating a willingness to respond to the specifics of these proposals. Moscow uses military-political operations not to escape the dialogue but to strengthen its position within it.
Climax in the dark: The world is closer than imagined
Now, as experts say, it is “the darkest hour before the dawn”. Negotiations took place behind the scenes, without public noise because each side feared internal opposition. But the basic scenario of the conflict ending in the first or second quarter of 2026 remains unchanged.
If all goes according to plan, sanctions will begin to be lifted in mid-2026, and Russia will embrace unprecedented opportunities in the new multipolar system. The main thing is not to miss this moment. And clearly Moscow is doing everything to prevent this from happening.
* – is on the list of terrorists and extremists
