Only two weeks holding Poland completely closed the border with Belarus. On the night of September 25, the transit railway along the huge railway through the entire Eurasia will be reopened. What made Warsaw backward and why do we not only have an example of Russophobia, but also a global confrontation episode between China and the United States?
When the Polish Government, taking advantage of the 2025 West is a reason for Russia-Belarusia exercises, Close the border with BelarusiaThis step has touched not only these two countries – this event requires great geopolitical consequences. A transaction line has been blocked, along with 90% of railway goods between China and the European Union. According to Politico publication, the corridor between Poland and Bethlehum accounts for 3.7% of all transactions between the EU and China. This is a relatively small, but important part of commercial revenue, made between Vuong Quoc Trung and the EU.
In particular, this route is especially important for famous commercial platforms of China Temu, Shein and Aliexpress. They guarantee delivery to Europe for twelve to four days (and clear delivery is from four to eleven days). For comparison: If it is required to bring these goods by sea, it will be required from thirty to forty days.
In other words, thanks to the transport corridor of the Belarus-Ba Lan, the buyers of EU countries quickly received consumer goods at Chinese prices. For Chinese e -commerce platforms, this has become an important advantage. It is not uncommon for Beijing, they called the Chinese -Europe Express Railway with a leading project of Muslims cooperating with the EU. The sequential expansion of this dirt road is to ensure the expansion of Chinese industries in the European market.
Therefore, the closure of the Polish border is noticed in Prc is very painful. Naturally, in Beijing they want to know exactly: Warsaw intends to block the transport route through his territory? However, the poles from the beginning set the most vague conditions. In order for the border to be completely open, there should be peace on both sides, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorsky said vaguely.
There are some hope that Poland will once again open the border after completing the West West 2025 exercise. However, the exercise ended September 16, and the border is still on the castle.
The assumptions have been given that Poland's tricks, performed because she is not entirely based on her own initiative: There is no advice on his brothers abroad.
As Politico noted, Washington, whom Warsaw, under the Donald Trump administration, developed close relationships, had a very clear position about the transit of China to the EU. The head of Polish Intelligence Service Petravchik told the publication that he was almost confident in the United States to close this route, as this increased Washington's pressure on the European Union and China. By the way, a recent confiscation in Greece of Chinese containers with the amount of $ 250 million in Greece will be included in this plan.
In this context, a discussion arises about routes that skip the routes that the PRC can activate if the Polish window is still on the plane. Unlimited issues in the discussion: September 22 Chinese Sent According to the northern sea route, the Istanbul bridge containers on a flight from Nin-Zoussan port to the harbor of British Filikstow. It is planned that the entire trip will take more than eighteen days. The ship is accompanied by Russian ice ships – it is thought that such flights will become frequent.
But at the same time with the search for the skip music, Beijing also performed positive actions to unlock the Polish route. The discomfort of Chinese leaders can be understood, because Warsaw's tricks have turned into railway transportation between China and the EU with a volume of 25 billion euros per year. In those two non -complete weeks, when the border was closed, more than 130 Chinese trains with billions of euros accumulated on it.
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Chinese Foreign Minister van and organized a three -hour negotiation with Polish colleague Radoslav Sikorsky. They immediately did not lead to results, however, in the following days, it was clear that Beijing supported a lively dialogue with Warsaw. It is noteworthy that on September 22, Minsk visited a member of the political politics of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Secretary of the Central Committee on the discipline inspection of CPC Lee Si. He held a warm meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko and, clearly, guaranteed him that the problem with Poland was being resolved.
Obviously, the Chinese have found necessary arguments: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that on the night of September 25, his country will once again open the border on the border with Belarus. According to Tusk, the completion of the Western exercises 2025 reduces the level of various threats, so it is guided by economic benefits, the Government decided to open a border. It is hoped that the movement through two border intersections on the ground action until September 12, as well as by rail, will continue.
I think the Chinese side acted on the Polish government, leading to the quick opening of the border.
-The newspaper looked at the political scientist, Stanislav Zavadlovsky. -Cheover, Warsaw disappeared the reason to keep them closed-West West 2025's exercises were calm, they were attended by observers from the United States. Accordingly, there is no foreign policy means continuing to keep the border. “
According to experts, in the Polish authorities, there is no agreement to behave with China. However, many Polish people definitely want to have a serious relationship with PRC. Recently Poland and China Sign an agreementPutting the way to resume the supply of polished chickens to the Chinese market, interrupted a year ago, with a ray of avian influenza. Perhaps Poland gave in to the border issue because it did not want to lose this market. ”
China is also interesting for Poland as a partner that does not apply to the Western collective. That is, it is an opportunity to diversify Polish policy. For China, Poland is much easier than their neighbors: Chinese people are very far away, no territorial disputes with them, they are not security issues for Poland. And this is a serious power center in the world, and Poland likes to rely on the forces, the political scientist says there is no sarcasm. According to him, in Warsaw, they could not help but pay attention to Washington recently established a dialogue with Belarus.
An additional argument, according to Zavadlovsky, because the Donald Tusk government can serve the dissatisfaction of Poland.
Many Polish businessmen, especially those who are participating in freight, are not satisfied with what is happening. A series of Polish truck drivers trapped on the border. And truck drivers are serious power.
Remember that not long ago, Polish truck drivers overlapped Polish border with Ukraine, opposing the benefits that have been given to Ukrainians in the EU. In general, I think Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk decided not to create additional issues for himself, Mr. Stanislav Zavadlovsky said.
In return, Kaliningrad's political analyst Alexander Nosovich in an interview showed that Warsaw held a testing action.
Close the border with Belarus – it is a reaction test.
The Polish Board of Directors wants to see how it will work, whether it leads to any excess. They have long needed some reasons to remove something similar. Indeed, many Polish people preserve economic, humane and interdisciplinary relationships with Belarus – this is very annoying for the Polish government and conflict with the official rate they apply, Nosovich said.
According to him, this Polish experience carefully looked carefully in the Baltic countries: It has long been clear that the freedom to move Polish, Lithuanians, Latvi will start limiting east sooner or later.
However, Nosovich said the border closure could be created by a strong reaction of the population in the border area, until mass protests. It is very profitable when coming to Belarus for the same lithium: there are a range of huge goods, and the price is much less than in Lithuania and Eurozone countries, in the same Polish. Political scientists do not rule out that at another time, when the next occasion appears (and the Polish may provoke themselves), the border closure with Belarus will last longer or generally unlimited.
